Probably Stolen All Events and Their Effects Guide

In Probably Stolen, random events can change market prices, affect your electricity or water supply, and introduce special customers with unique buying or selling behavior. Knowing how long each event lasts, when it can happen again, and which items become more valuable can help you plan your next moves.

I’ve organized the naturally spawning events below with their price changes, duration, cooldown, and special effects, based on the provided guide. Events triggered by the Shady Customer may have different durations than naturally spawning events.

Probably Stolen All Events and Their Effects Guide

1. Power Outage

  • Internal name: powerShortage

  • Price change: Energy Cells +66%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Upper-level charity: 2 used Energy Cells

  • Special effect: Your power is forced off unless you’ve purchased the Power Hijacking upgrade.

Customer: Lower Level Citizen — a lower-level buyer interested in Energy Cells.

2. Power Plant Maintenance

  • Internal name: ScheduledEletricalMaintenance

  • Price change: Energy Cells +33%

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Upper-level charity: None listed

Customer: Lower Level Citizen — a lower-level buyer interested in Energy Cells.

3. Who Turned Out the Lights?

  • Internal name: stationWideBlackout

  • Price changes: Energy Cells +100%, Weapons +25%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Upper-level charity: 2 used Energy Cells

  • Special effect: Your power is forced off unless you’ve purchased the Power Hijacking upgrade.

Customers:

  • Upper Level Resident: Buys Energy Cells.

  • Panicked Shopkeeper: Buys Weapons and Armor. Can spawn once during the event, on one of its days.

4. Oxymore Addiction on the Rise

  • Internal name: oxymoreWave

  • Price change: Medical Supplies +25%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 5 days

Special customer: Clinic Volunteer, a lower-level seller who offers Naloxgone for free.

The guide notes that giving Naloxgone away for free earns 1 reputation with lower levels, while selling it at the normal price costs 4 reputation with lower levels.

5. Medical Supplies Shortage

  • Internal name: medicalSuppliesShortage

  • Price change: Medical Supplies +50%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Pharmacist — a lower-level buyer interested in Medical Supplies. This customer can spawn with the No Contraband trait.

6. Water Supply Crisis

  • Internal name: water_treatment_breakdown

  • Price changes:

    • Water: +100%

    • Water Rations: +100%

    • Beverages: +90%

    • Water Purification Supplies: +80%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Upper-level charity: Two 750 ml bottles of high-quality water

Possible customers:

  • Corporate Representative: A lower-level seller and buyer with a water-testing kit. Buys basewater-quality and spring water, and offers one 2 L bottle and one 750 ml bottle.

  • Spacer: A lower-level seller and buyer with a water-testing kit. Buys ghostwater-quality water and offers one 450 ml bottle and one 750 ml bottle. Can spawn with No Contraband.

These two customers compete for the same spawn opportunity. The source also notes that their buyer tags for Water and Water Rations are missing.

7. Minor Water Shortage

  • Internal name: scheduled_treatment_maintenance

  • Price changes:

    • Water: +35%

    • Water Rations: +35%

    • Beverages: +30%

    • Water Purification Supplies: +25%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Lower Level Citizen — a lower-level seller and buyer with a water-testing kit. Buys basewater through high-quality water and can spawn with No Contraband.

The customer offers one 2 L bottle and one 750 ml bottle. The source notes missing buyer tags for Water and Water Rations.

8. Water Supply Surplus

  • Internal name: miner_return_ice_asteroid

  • Price changes:

    • Water: -25%

    • Water Rations: -25%

    • Beverages: -20%

    • Water Purification Supplies: -15%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Ice Miner — a lower-level seller who never mislabels water. Offers one 2 L bottle of high-quality water and one 750 ml bottle of high-quality water.

9. Bad Nutrifruit Harvest

  • Internal name: badNutrifruitHarvest

  • Price change: Food +50%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Food Buyer — a lower-level buyer interested in Food.

10. Nutrifruit Seed Shortage

  • Internal name: seedShortage

  • Price changes: Food +33%, Seeds +50%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Farmer — a lower-level seller and buyer who can spawn with No Contraband. The farmer offers six Nutrifruit and is interested in Seeds.

11. Nutrifruit Harvest

  • Internal name: nutrifruitHarvest

  • Price change: Food -20%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Customers: None listed.

12. Construction Projects

  • Internal name: construction_project

  • Price change: Materials +30%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Foreman — a lower-level buyer interested in Materials.

13. Material Surplus

  • Internal name: miningExpeditionReturn

  • Price change: Materials -25%

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Miner — a lower-level seller and buyer. Can appear through the random customer pool or a Wild’s Seller referral. Offers a wholesale discount of 15–25%, sells Metal Ore, and has a Substance buyer tag. The source lists Alcohol as a missing buyer tag.

14. Household Item Surplus

  • Internal name: storeroom_excavated

  • Price change: Household Items -20%

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Scavenger — a lower-level seller offering a 15–20% wholesale discount. Available stock includes:

  • Toothpaste

  • 4 in 1 Wash

  • Toilet Paper

15. Household Relief Drive

  • Internal name: ul_household_relief

  • Price change: Household Items -40%

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 3 days

  • Special effect: You can be notified about this event if you have the relevant upper-level perk.

  • Customers: None listed.

16. Illegal Weapon Shipment

  • Internal name: bm_illegal_weapon_shipment

  • Price change: Weapons -35%

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 8 days

  • Special effect: You can be notified about this event if you have the relevant Black Market perk.

  • Customers: None listed.

17. Increased Weapons Demand

  • Internal name: rev_mobilization_secret

  • Price changes: Weapons +25%, Ammunition +25%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 2 days

  • Special effect: You can be notified about this event if you have the relevant Revolution perk.

  • Customers: None listed.

18. Lower Level Lynching

  • Internal name: lower_level_mob_justice

  • Price changes: Weapons +33%, Armor +33%, Ammunition +33%

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 10 days

Customer: Angry Citizen — a lower-level buyer interested in Weapons and Armor.

19. Tourist Influx

  • Internal name: cruiseShipDocked

  • Price changes: None specified

  • Duration: 2 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Possible customers:

  • Tourist: An upper-level buyer interested in Substances, Food, Water, and Water Rations. Can appear through the random upper-level visitor perk requiring 20 upper-level reputation or the random customer pool.

  • Station Tourist: Interested in Variety, Makeshift items, Materials, and Junk.

  • Station Tourist: Interested in Weapons.

The three tourist types compete with other tourist types for their spawn opportunities.

20. Meteor Shower

  • Internal name: meteorShower

  • Price change: Materials +50%

  • Duration: 3 days

  • Cooldown: 3 days

Customer: Foreman — a lower-level buyer interested in Materials.

21. Security Budget Increase

  • Internal name: sec_budget_increase

  • Price changes: None specified

  • Duration: 1 day

  • Cooldown: 10 days

  • Special effect: Scripted to spawn on Day 10.

  • Customers: None listed.

Event Comparison Table

Event Main price change Duration Cooldown
Power Outage Energy Cells +66% 2 days 3 days
Power Plant Maintenance Energy Cells +33% 1 day 3 days
Who Turned Out the Lights? Energy Cells +100%, Weapons +25% 2 days 3 days
Oxymore Addiction on the Rise Medical +25% 2 days 5 days
Medical Supplies Shortage Medical +50% 2 days 3 days
Water Supply Crisis Water +100%, Rations +100% 3 days 3 days
Minor Water Shortage Water +35%, Rations +35% 3 days 3 days
Water Supply Surplus Water -25%, Rations -25% 2 days 3 days
Bad Nutrifruit Harvest Food +50% 3 days 3 days
Nutrifruit Seed Shortage Food +33%, Seeds +50% 2 days 3 days
Nutrifruit Harvest Food -20% 3 days 3 days
Construction Projects Materials +30% 3 days 3 days
Material Surplus Materials -25% 1 day 3 days
Household Item Surplus Household Items -20% 1 day 3 days
Household Relief Drive Household Items -40% 1 day 3 days
Illegal Weapon Shipment Weapons -35% 2 days 8 days
Increased Weapons Demand Weapons +25%, Ammo +25% 3 days 2 days
Lower Level Lynching Weapons, Armor, Ammo +33% 1 day 10 days
Tourist Influx No change listed 2 days 3 days
Meteor Shower Materials +50% 3 days 3 days
Security Budget Increase No change listed 1 day 10 days

Best Events to Watch for Price Changes

Based strictly on the listed price changes, these events have the largest increases for their affected categories:

  • Energy Cells: Who Turned Out the Lights? (+100%)

  • Water and Water Rations: Water Supply Crisis (+100%)

  • Beverages: Water Supply Crisis (+90%)

  • Water Purification Supplies: Water Supply Crisis (+80%)

  • Medical Supplies: Medical Supplies Shortage (+50%)

  • Food: Bad Nutrifruit Harvest (+50%)

  • Materials: Meteor Shower (+50%)

  • Weapons, Armor, and Ammunition: Lower Level Lynching (+33% for each listed category)

Events with price decreases can also matter when planning purchases. The largest listed discounts include Household Relief Drive (-40% for Household Items), Illegal Weapon Shipment (-35% for Weapons), and Material Surplus (-25% for Materials).

These comparisons only reflect the event modifiers in the supplied guide; they don’t account for base prices, customer availability, or other game mechanics.

This guide covers the 21 naturally spawning events listed in the provided source, including their price changes, durations, cooldowns, customer spawns, and special conditions. Remember that event durations can differ when events are spawned by the Shady Customer.

If you’re using this as a reference while playing, the comparison table is the quickest way to check which categories may become more expensive or cheaper during a particular event.

Eric Langell
Eric Langell

Eric is a Senior Writer for Treyexgaming, primarily covering guides and codes, as well as general gaming news and guides. After leaving university with a degree in Bachelor in Physical Education.

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